Notes on the method

2020 began with a sudden global health crisis caused by Covid (Corona Virus Disease 2019). The virus originated in the Chinese province of Wuhan and eventually spread across the planet. To date, there are over three million deaths worldwide, out of nearly 150 million confirmed cases. Italy was one of the most affected countries, with over 4 million cases and one hundred and twenty thousand deaths, most of them concentrated on the border between Lombardy, Piedmont, and Emilia-Romagna.

The strategy implemented by the government was to minimize human loss and reduce the burden on intensive care units in hospitals. Although this safeguarded overburdening hospitals, the necessary shutdown of production activities opened the way to an unprecedented economic crisis. The many drawbacks affected an economy that was still struggling with the negative consequences of the 2008 global financial crisis.

From March 11 to May 18, 2020, the Italian economy experienced two months of lockdown, i.e., the shutdown of most activities not considered strategic, to contain the possibility of contamination within the population, a period followed by the resumption of all activities in summer, to go back to shutdowns in autumn, this time diversified by sector and territory (red, orange and yellow regions,) which severely limited entrepreneurial initiatives throughout the winter months.

In this context, much economical analysis focused on prospective assessments concerning a future difficult to decipher and the economic policies made to safeguard those businesses struggling with liquidity and survival and their workers who were now at risk, with families in great suffering.

The Italian Gross Domestic Product was at -8.9% in real terms compared to the same period of the previous year, while the estimates for 2021 are constantly revised downwards given the persistence of the pandemic crisis beyond the initial forecasts.

Compared to 2019, employment has dropped too, albeit at a slower rate than GDP, essentially thanks to the freeze on layoffs enforced by the many government decrees that followed one another. The nearly 530,000 jobs lost during the year accounted for 2.1% of the total number of workers of the previous year (with worse figures in many sectors, including the audiovisual), although further deterioration will take place over the first months of 2021, with an additional 400,000 jobs lost by the crisis.

In this framework, some production sectors have shown further difficulties than those described on average, especially in the tertiary sector.